TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights
Volume:
$2,087,234
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights NHL game scheduled for March 28, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET. Markets cover three outcome categories: moneyline (Capitals win vs. Golden Knights win), and total goals over/under at multiple thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5 combined goals). Resolution depends on final regulation + overtime score, with shootout goals counted as +1 for the winning team.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for identical over/under markets. Kalshi treats 'over X.5' as requiring strictly more than X.5 goals (i.e., X+1 or more), while Polymarket's descriptions explicitly state the threshold in absolute terms (e.g., 'O/U 4.5' resolves Over at 5+ goals, 'O/U 6.5' resolves Over at 7+ goals). This creates a systematic offset in how each platform settles identical goal-total markets.Hero Tip:
If you trade over/under markets on both platforms, verify the exact threshold before placing bets. A 5-goal game resolves YES on Kalshi's 'over 4.5' but the outcome depends on Polymarket's specific wording—check each market description carefully. The moneyline and spread markets appear consistent across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight over/under markets (over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5 goals) with no explicit resolution descriptions provided. Standard interpretation of 'over X.5' implies resolution to Yes if the combined goal total is strictly greater than X.5 (i.e., X+1 or more goals). For example, 'over 4.5' would resolve Yes at 5+ goals.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket provides four over/under markets with explicit resolution thresholds in their descriptions. 'O/U 4.5' resolves Over if 5+ goals are scored; 'O/U 5.5' resolves Over if 6+ goals are scored; 'O/U 6.5' resolves Over if 7+ goals are scored; 'O/U 7.5' resolves Over if 8+ goals are scored. All Polymarket markets include identical postponement and cancellation clauses, plus a shootout rule: 'one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.' Polymarket also offers a moneyline (Capitals vs. Golden Knights winner) and a spread market (Golden Knights -1.5).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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