TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Capitals vs. Canadiens
Volume:
$589,785
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens NHL game scheduled for February 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting, and multiple over/under total goals thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket both use the same over/under logic (goals must exceed the stated threshold), but Kalshi offers 8 distinct threshold markets (2.5 to 9.5) while Polymarket offers only 4 (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). This creates coverage gaps and potential arbitrage opportunities, but no logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Treat both platforms as aligned in resolution logic. The divergence is scope, not mechanics. Use Kalshi for fine-grained threshold hedging (e.g., 2.5, 3.5) and Polymarket for standard O/U lines. Always confirm the final combined goal tally against the specific threshold on each platform. Remember: shootout adds 1 goal to the winner's total for resolution purposes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Offers 8 over/under markets with thresholds 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5. Each resolves YES if combined goals exceed the threshold. Example: O/U 4.5 resolves YES if 5 or more goals are scored.
- Polymarket: Offers 4 over/under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) plus moneyline and spread. Each resolves OVER if combined goals meet or exceed the derived threshold (threshold + 1). Example: O/U 4.5 resolves OVER if 5 or more goals are scored. Includes explicit 50-50 resolution if game is canceled with no makeup.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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