TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Capitals vs. Blues
Volume:
$1,506,712
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Washington Capitals vs. St. Louis Blues NHL game scheduled for March 24, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Markets cover three dimensions: moneyline (winner), total goals (combined scoring across multiple thresholds), and margin of victory (spread outcomes). All resolution determinations include overtime and shootout goals (with shootout wins credited as +1 goal to winner).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket settle on different underlying events. Kalshi resolves based on margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal margins), while Polymarket resolves based on total combined goals scored, moneyline winner, and spread outcomes. These are fundamentally different resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi's margin markets, you are betting on how decisively one team wins (by 2+ or 3+ goals). If you bet on Polymarket's total or moneyline markets, you are betting on combined scoring or which team wins regardless of margin. A 3-1 Capitals win resolves YES on Kalshi's margin markets but does NOT directly resolve any Polymarket total market the same way—it only resolves the moneyline. Do not assume cross-platform hedging will work.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi's four markets all resolve YES if either team wins by a margin exceeding a threshold (1.5 or 2.5 goals). For example, 'If St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Washington wins by over 1.5 goals...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a binary outcome based purely on margin magnitude, independent of total goals or which specific team wins.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket's six markets resolve on three independent criteria: (1) total combined goals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), (2) moneyline winner (Capitals vs. Blues), and (3) spread outcomes (Capitals -1.5, Blues -1.5). For example, 'This market will resolve to Over if the Capitals and Blues combine to score 7 or more goals' and 'If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to Capitals.' Each market has its own resolution trigger unrelated to the others.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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