TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for Cap's governance token; reference entity is Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_)Core resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price at the most liquid available source
- Resolution timestamp is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Market resolves YES if FDV exceeds the threshold specified in the market title at the resolution timestamp
- Market resolves NO if FDV is equal to or below the threshold, or if no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Launch by Deadline: If Cap does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to NO regardless of threshold
- Launch Definition: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable; passive or restricted tokens do not qualify as a launch
- Most Liquid Source Selection: If multiple trading venues exist, the most liquid source determines the price; this requires real-time assessment at resolution time
- Exact Threshold Boundary: FDV must be strictly greater than the specified threshold to resolve YES; FDV equal to the threshold resolves NO
- Supply and Price Verification: Total token supply must be verifiable from official Cap sources; price is sourced from the most liquid trading venue
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Cap's token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve NO without further action.Follow the signals, not the noise
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