TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 4:07 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the margin of victory for either Canada or Peru, considering only the goals scored during the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time or penalties.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential in the Canada vs Peru professional Intl Friendlies soccer game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. For Canada, markets resolve if Canada wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. For Peru, markets resolve if Peru wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The determination is made after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty shootout results excluded. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection to the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. This often leads to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when there’s significant public interest. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for comparison, and discrepancies may present opportunities for arbitrage if you believe the market is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for the Canada vs Peru match. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Canada vs Peru match, as determined by official sports sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor official results following the event to understand how this market settles and to confirm your positions.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Canada or Peru teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match venue or referee assignments might also play a role. As the event approaches, increased media coverage and public discussion will likely drive higher volume and potentially greater price volatility in this market.