TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various potential score margins in an upcoming professional soccer match between Cambuur and GA Eagles. It focuses on different thresholds by which either team could win, emphasizing the margin of victory rather than just the win itself. Outcomes depend on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple possible winning margins for the Cambuur vs GA Eagles Eredivisie match scheduled for October 31, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty outcomes are excluded. Four distinct primary rules define specific victory margins: Cambuur must win by more than 2.5 goals, Cambuur must win by more than 1.5 goals, GA Eagles must win by more than 1.5 goals, or GA Eagles must win by more than 2.5 goals. Each rule corresponds to a separate market outcome, and only the matching condition will resolve as 'Yes' — all others resolve as 'No.' The rules operate independently, meaning a single match result could satisfy one, multiple, or none of the defined margins. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can sometimes differ from sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the insights of their own experts, while this market relies on individuals freely trading based on their own analysis. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when there is strong public sentiment or information not fully captured by traditional models. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as the trading volume indicates a rapid assessment of changing probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of buy and sell orders at various price points—shows how much volume is available at each potential price, influencing how easily prices can move. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of traders.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Cambuur vs GA Eagles match, as officially recorded by sporting authorities. The market will determine which outcome—the spread—was the correct result according to the official match statistics. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final market price of their chosen contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching staff for either Cambuur or GA Eagles could significantly impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions on match day might also shift expectations. Furthermore, general news and analysis surrounding the teams’ recent performance, tactical approaches, and head-to-head records could all contribute to price movements. Major shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and social media, could also influence the market’s direction.