TOTAL VOLUME:

$138.8b

24H VOL:

$98,507,202

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,512,278,066

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,541,181,569

474,834

Markets across

36,671

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,913

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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California vs. UNLV
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of California vs UNLV?

Total volume:
$4,296,361
Volume 24h:
$4,244,166
24,647%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$2,123,077
5,410%

California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5

 - Polymarket

California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 3, 2026

California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 50¢ buys you 200 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $200 | Net Profit: $100 Multiplier: 2.00x | ROI: 100% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

UNLV

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,652,341
N/A
N/A
$852,873
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1H Spread -0.5

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 20¢
20¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 67.5

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,989
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 53.5

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64,430
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 55.5

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 57.5

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,324
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 49.5

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,714
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 61.5

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 43.5

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 51.5

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 63.5

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

California O/U 26.5

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

California O/U 29.5

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

UNLV O/U 26.5

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -6.5

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

California O/U 20.5

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

UNLV O/U 29.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1H Spread -3.5

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 216

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of California exceeding 19.5 total first downs in their upcoming college football game against UNLV. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 100.0%. This aggregated view incorporates data from both platforms, with resolution based on official results reported by https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 3rd, as the final first down count will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers a simple binary outcome (either team wins), while Polymarket provides a suite of markets with varying point spreads and over/under totals, creating SKU risk.Hero tip: Understand the scope of each market. Kalshi's market is a broad hedge, while Polymarket's markets require more precise predictions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either California or UNLV wins the game. "If UNLV wins the California vs UNLV college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If California wins the California vs UNLV college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Offers markets for California winning, UNLV winning, and a variety of point spreads and over/under totals. "This market will resolve to "California" if California win the game. This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming college football game between California and UNLV, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "California" if California win the game. This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the California vs UNLV college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. If either team wins the game as officially recorded, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, as seen on this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks primarily aim to balance their books and profit from margins, while prediction markets incentivize participants to accurately forecast outcomes. This can lead to prediction markets incorporating a wider range of data and potentially offering more nuanced probabilities. However, arbitrage opportunities can exist, causing convergence between the two, especially as the event approaches. The current volume of $4,296,361 suggests active trading and price discovery.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. Different user bases, varying trading fees, and distinct market structures contribute to these divergences. Furthermore, each platform may attract traders with different expertise or access to information regarding the California vs. UNLV game. The differing volume on each platform – Polymarket with a volume of $4,296,361 – also plays a role in price formation. These factors combine to create potentially different probabilities for the same event across the two venues.

This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the California vs. UNLV game, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning outcome. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any new information. The volume currently stands at $4,296,361, indicating active participation and a dynamic assessment of the game’s potential results.

Several factors could significantly shift the probabilities in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the California or UNLV teams would likely cause movement. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements related to team performance or player availability are also potential catalysts. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations before Oct 3, 2026.