TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in the first half of a college football game between California and NC State. Each market corresponds to a specific margin by which either team must lead at halftime for the market to settle as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the California vs NC State college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For any market where NC State must win by a specified margin, the market resolves to 'Yes' only if NC State leads by more than that margin at halftime. Conversely, markets requiring California to win resolve to 'Yes' only if California leads by more than the specified margin at halftime. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official halftime result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell contracts. If a significant number of traders believe NC State is undervalued by sportsbooks, the price of this market will move in their favor, potentially offering better value than available elsewhere. However, it's important to note that both represent probabilities of the same underlying event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the California vs NC State spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting NC State will cover the spread, the price will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the California vs NC State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college basketball. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout of 100 per contract, while those holding contracts on the losing side will receive 0. The final score will determine which contracts are settled as winners.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the California or NC State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated statistical models, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could all impact trader sentiment and lead to fluctuations in the price of this market. Unexpected betting trends or large volume trades on Kalshi could also be catalysts.