TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 4:43 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Gustavo Heide and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gustavo Heide' if Gustavo Heide advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Gustavo Heide. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Gustavo Heide and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gustavo Heide' if Gustavo Heide advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Gustavo Heide. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a player has a higher chance of winning than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Polymarket will shift accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion changes leading up to the match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for one outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Heide vs Varillas match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner. Traders who held shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing surface conditions, or even weather forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or changes in their rankings, could also impact the odds. Furthermore, public statements from tennis analysts or coaches offering opinions on the match could sway the market. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential price movements.