TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in Peru's top league, focusing on which team secures a victory within regular time. The contest evaluates three possible results based on the final score after 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time. Participants can speculate on whether one team will win or if the game will end in a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal professional Peru Liga 1 soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for Cajamarca resolves the 'Cajamarca' market to Yes; a win for Sporting Cristal resolves the 'Sporting Cristal' market to Yes; and a tie resolves the 'Tie' market to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration for resolution.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to news or late-breaking developments, while sportsbook odds may be slower to react.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal match. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular result, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment surrounding the event. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate assessments, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome—a win for Cajamarca, a win for Sporting Cristal, or a draw—actually occurred during the match. All outstanding contracts will then be settled accordingly, reflecting the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the match takes place. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching staff could shift the probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions at the match venue could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Furthermore, real-time updates during the match itself, such as early goals or red cards, could cause rapid price movements. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators can also impact trading activity and influence the market’s direction.