TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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CA Unión vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of CA Unión vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia?

Volume:
$1,035,662

Defensa y Justicia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 10:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Defensa y Justicia

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$513,631
N/A
N/A
$250,387
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CSyD Defensa y Justicia

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$120,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Union Santa Fe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$234,301
N/A
N/A
$125,471
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$151,911
N/A
N/A
$98,049
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (CA Unión vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia)

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

CA Unión

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a soccer match between CA Unión and CSyD Defensa y Justicia on October 9, 2026, in the Argentine Primera Division. Currently, the consensus probability of CSyD Defensa y Justicia winning is 93.5%, with a 7% probability of a tie, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The official results will be sourced from https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol. Keep an eye on October 10, 2026, as this is the estimated resolution date for the match and associated market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly handles game cancellations by resolving to 'No', while Kalshi makes no mention of this scenario, potentially leaving the market open indefinitely.Hero tip: Consider the likelihood of game cancellation when trading. Polymarket offers defined resolution in that event, while Kalshi does not.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on the official result within 90 minutes + stoppage time. If the game is canceled with no makeup game, the market resolves to 'No'. Uses a hierarchy of data sources (official stats, Flashscore, Sofascore, consensus).
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on the official result within 90 minutes + stoppage time. No mention of cancellation handling. Relies on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between CA Unión and CSyD Defensa y Justicia.

Kalshi

The event covers three possible outcomes of the Union Santa Fe versus Defensa y Justicia match scheduled for October 9, 2026: a win for Union Santa Fe, a win for Defensa y Justicia, or a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified condition is met. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price. The resolution exclusively considers the result after regular time, with no account for extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by the collective intelligence of traders. This market, like others, can sometimes offer more favorable odds than sportsbooks, especially if there’s disagreement between the crowd and the bookmakers. It’s worth comparing both to identify potential value, as prediction markets can sometimes be more efficient in reflecting true probabilities. The difference can also depend on the specific event and the level of interest it attracts.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, all of which influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can lead to varied assessments of the likelihood of each outcome. The volume of trading on each platform also plays a role; higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies, creating opportunities for arbitrage.