TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús
Volume:
$400,106
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a professional Argentina Primera División soccer match between CA Independiente (Avellaneda) and CA Lanús scheduled for February 13, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess whether Independiente wins, Lanús wins, or the match ends in a draw, all measured within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling diverges between platforms. Kalshi does not specify cancellation behavior, while Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on permanent cancellation, but win markets resolve NO—creating an asymmetric payout structure.Hero Tip:
Monitor AFA.com.ar for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If the match is permanently canceled without a make-up date, Polymarket's draw market will pay out YES while win markets pay NO. On Kalshi, cancellation behavior is undefined and may require manual settlement review. Hedge accordingly if cancellation risk is material.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets (Tie, Lanus win, Independiente win) each resolve YES if their outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation is not addressed in the resolution criteria. Key Quote: 'after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate markets (Independiente win, Lanús win, draw) with explicit cancellation clauses. Win markets resolve NO if canceled with no make-up game; draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up game. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (wins) vs. 'this market will resolve Yes' (draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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