TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Independiente
Volume:
$222,481
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza and CA Independiente Avellaneda scheduled for February 24, 2026. Markets are offered on Polymarket and Kalshi, covering outcomes of Mendoza win, Independiente win, and draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's cancellation logic is internally inconsistent (draw resolves YES, wins resolve NO), and Kalshi lacks explicit cancellation guidance, creating settlement ambiguity if the match is canceled without a make-up date.Hero Tip:
Monitor AFA official announcements for any postponement or cancellation. If the game is canceled with no reschedule, Polymarket draw positions resolve favorably while win positions resolve unfavorably—a rare arbitrage opportunity but also a sign of market design flaw. Kalshi's three outcome markets will likely remain unresolved pending clarification from the exchange.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Independiente win (resolves NO on cancellation), Mendoza win (resolves NO on cancellation), and draw (resolves YES on cancellation). All scope to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win markets) but 'this market will resolve Yes' (draw market).
- Kalshi: Three separate outcome markets (Tie, Mendoza, Independiente), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Implicit assumption: market requires an actual match result to resolve.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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