TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether BYU will win their game against UCF by more than 2.5 points. Currently, “BYU wins by over 2.5 points” is trading at 50.0%, while “BYU wins by over 1.5 points” is at 48.0% on Kalshi. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the BYU vs UCF college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, as reported by the final score of the game. Keep a close eye on the game itself on October 24, 2026, as that is when the final score – and thus the market resolution – will be determined.
The event consists of multiple markets, each corresponding to a specific point-spread threshold for either BYU or UCF to win by in their college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds the specified point-spread margin. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. The event encompasses a range of spread values for both teams, from narrow margins (e.g., BYU wins by over 1.5 points) to larger margins (e.g., UCF wins by over 14.5 points), providing participants with various levels of risk and potential return based on the expected score differential.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public sentiment and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges, and as traders react to news or analysis. Comparing the two can offer a broader understanding of expectations surrounding the BYU vs UCF game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific spread, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on their own analysis and expectations for the game. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and reflect the collective prediction of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the BYU vs UCF game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by sports data providers and widely reported by major sports news outlets. The market will determine which contract – representing a specific point spread – accurately predicted the final margin of victory (or loss) in the game, and those holding winning contracts will be paid out accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries for either BYU or UCF would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in coaching strategies or team performance. Unexpected weather forecasts for the game location could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any major shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to changes in trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the predicted spread.