TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 8:05 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether BYU or UCF will win by a specific margin in the second half of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered successful.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the BYU vs UCF college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market specifies a different point differential threshold that BYU or UCF must exceed to resolve as 'Yes'. If BYU achieves a winning margin greater than the specified threshold, the corresponding BYU markets resolve to 'Yes'. Conversely, if UCF achieves a winning margin greater than the specified threshold, the corresponding UCF markets resolve to 'Yes'. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds, but with some key differences. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while Kalshi allows traders to directly bet against each other. This can sometimes lead to more efficient pricing in this market, as it’s less influenced by the sportsbook's need to profit from every bet. However, sportsbook odds still serve as a useful benchmark for understanding public perception and potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the BYU vs UCF game. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall in that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market is constantly updating based on new information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second-half spread of the BYU vs UCF game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body for college football. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive nothing. The final spread will be the determining factor for all contract payouts in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the BYU or UCF teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or even unexpected lineup changes could all contribute to shifts in the price of contracts in this market as traders react to the new information.