TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the margin of victory specifically within the final quarter of a college football game, isolating performance in the last period of play. Outcomes depend entirely on points scored during that timeframe, without considering earlier quarters or overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the BYU vs TCU college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team achieves a victory margin exceeding the specified point threshold for that market. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official final result from that played game. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting equitable assessment of circumstances preventing play. No markets consider points from periods other than the 4th quarter or from overtime, and all operate independently of each other with distinct point-spread requirements for resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can often be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust their positions based on new information and analysis. However, there can be discrepancies due to differing market participants and the incentives at play. It’s common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge closer to the event start, as both attempt to reflect the true probability of the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants trading in this market. Trading volume and order flow directly influence price discovery on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter point spread of the BYU vs TCU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will receive nothing. The final result will be publicly available on Kalshi following verification.
Several factors could influence the BYU vs TCU spread between now and game day. Any news regarding key player injuries for either team would likely cause significant movement in this market. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s style of play, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could influence how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes.