TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either BYU or TCU specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based on the point differential by which either BYU or TCU wins the third quarter of the game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the winning team must exceed the specified point spread exclusively during the third quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official third-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward these resolutions, emphasizing the importance of in-quarter performance over the full game outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there is significant public interest. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and it's common to see some convergence as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the BYU vs TCU 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its forecast as the event draws closer, reflecting the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 3rd quarter of the BYU vs TCU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by each contract. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the BYU or TCU teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions that favor one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analyses, can also play a role, as can large trading volume from informed individuals. Unexpected developments during the first half of the game could also lead to rapid adjustments in the market price.