TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Bettors can choose from various point spreads to wager on whether one team will outperform the other by a specific margin before halftime.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the BYU vs TCU college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold; if BYU wins by exceeding the stated margin, the corresponding 'BYU wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if TCU achieves the required margin, the relevant 'TCU wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual first-half result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis from a wider range of sources than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own models and risk assessment, this market allows anyone to trade on their predictions, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and can serve as a useful benchmark when evaluating the price action in this market. It’s common to see some divergence, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring in the first half of the BYU vs TCU game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic representation of expectations. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final first-half spread of the BYU vs TCU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game's governing body. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive nothing. The platform will automatically settle all outstanding contracts based on this verified outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the BYU or TCU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for either team's playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, public sentiment and betting activity at sportsbooks can create momentum, influencing traders on Kalshi. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding team strategies or matchups could lead to shifts in the price of contracts in this market.