TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg
Volume:
$1,580,339
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, April 26, 2026 between BV Borussia 09 Dortmund and SC Freiburg.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three possible outcomes (Dortmund win, Tie, Freiburg win) resolve to YES, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a logical contradiction that violates basic prediction market principles.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken—every possible match outcome triggers YES, meaning there is no meaningful NO resolution path. Polymarket offers three separate, mutually exclusive binary markets that properly partition the outcome space. Trade Polymarket instead.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets, each mutually exclusive: (1) Dortmund win resolves YES/NO, (2) Draw resolves YES/NO, (3) Freiburg win resolves YES/NO. Exactly one market resolves YES based on the actual match outcome. Resolution source: official Bundesliga statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if official stats delayed. Cancellation without makeup resolves NO for win markets, YES for draw market.
- Kalshi: Single market with three resolution conditions, all mapping to YES: 'If Dortmund wins...then resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes. If Freiburg wins...then resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—the market always resolves YES regardless of outcome, with no NO resolution path defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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