TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 5:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which golfer will be leading after the first round of the 2026 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Currently, Kalshi gives Chandler Blanchet a 94.9% probability of leading at the end of Round 1. The market resolves based on official tournament results as determined by whether Eric Cole is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Keep an eye on the first round scores concluding on November 8, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and will determine the market’s outcome.
Each market resolves positively if the specified golfer is the sole leader after Round 1 of the 2026 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. If multiple players share the lead, "Yes" positions receive a prorated payout of $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down), while "No" positions receive the remainder of the stake pool. These rules apply uniformly across all individual player markets, ensuring consistent resolution mechanics regardless of which golfer is selected.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player form, course conditions, or even weather forecasts. It’s common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge as the event approaches and more information becomes available, but differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, the pricing for this market is determined by supply and demand among traders. Participants are essentially betting on the likelihood of each golfer being the leader after Round 1 of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a ‘yes’ contract for a particular golfer represents the market’s estimated probability of that golfer leading. As traders buy ‘yes’ contracts, the price increases, and as they sell, the price decreases, creating a constantly updating reflection of market sentiment. This process continues until the market closes.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official leaderboard published by the tournament organizers after the first round will determine the winner of this market. The golfer at the top of that leaderboard will be considered the leader and the outcome will be finalized. The resolution will reflect the official tournament results and will be based on the lowest score after the first 18 holes.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in form during practice rounds, or unexpected weather forecasts could all cause shifts in the odds. A strong performance by a lesser-known golfer in early play on Thursday would likely increase their contract prices, while a poor start from a favorite could see their prices decline. Overall course conditions, and any adjustments made by tournament officials, will also be closely watched by traders in this market.