TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bulls vs. Spurs
Volume:
$6,527,702
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 30 at 8:00PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (San Antonio wins OR Chicago wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Bulls win → 'Bulls', Spurs win → 'Spurs'), with consistent subsidiary markets (spreads, player props, halftime markets) all keyed to the same game result.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's moneyline market entirely—it is broken and will resolve YES regardless of who wins. All trading should reference Polymarket's suite of markets, which are logically sound and cross-consistent. If you hold Kalshi YES, expect either a platform correction or a dispute resolution process.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market states 'If San Antonio wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Chicago wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes, violating basic binary market structure. No resolution source or tie-breaking logic is provided.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market design: Polymarket structures the primary moneyline as a categorical outcome ('Bulls' vs. 'Spurs') with mutually exclusive resolution. All 27 subsidiary markets (spreads, player props, halftime markets, totals) are consistently keyed to the same game result, using NBA.com official box scores as the authoritative source. Postponement and cancellation rules are clearly defined across all markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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