TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Jeffery Xiong
- Kalshi
Jeffery Xiong - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 04d:21h:27m
$
This market assesses whether specified chess players achieve a top-five placement in a high-stakes Bullet Brawl tournament on a given date. The event features rapid gameplay under strict time constraints, with outcomes determined by tournament standings.
Each market evaluates an individual player's performance in the Bullet Brawl chess competition scheduled for November 7, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified player finishes within the top five positions. If the player does not participate, the market resolves to 'No'. In cases where multiple participants are tied after all official tiebreakers, all tied players receive the highest possible shared rank among their positions — for instance, tied participants for third place would each be credited with a third-place finish. The tournament follows Chess.com's standard Bullet Brawl format: a two-hour, score-based bullet arena competition using a 1+0 time control (one minute per move with no increment). Kalshi explicitly states it holds no affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, especially when there’s strong public sentiment or inside information not yet reflected in traditional odds. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly in events where public perception plays a significant role in the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential finisher, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of that finisher’s probability of success. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the event. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Bullet Brawl are verifiable from credible public reporting. The top five finishers will be determined based on the official rankings published after the event concludes. The market will settle to 100 for the contracts corresponding to the actual top five finishers and 0 for all others. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout of 100 per contract, while those holding losing contracts will receive nothing.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries or changes in form for key competitors would likely impact the odds. Unexpected announcements about the event itself, such as changes to the rules or format, could also cause shifts. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also influence trading activity. Finally, large trades by sophisticated market participants could signal new information or a change in outlook, leading to price adjustments in this market.