TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 10d:20h:00m
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In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Bulgaria and Iceland, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Bulgaria" if Bulgaria score more goals than Iceland in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Bulgaria and Iceland score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Iceland" if Iceland score more goals than Bulgaria in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Bulgaria and Iceland, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Bulgaria" if Bulgaria score more goals than Iceland in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Bulgaria and Iceland score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Iceland" if Iceland score more goals than Bulgaria in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market is driven purely by individuals wagering their own capital. If there's a significant discrepancy, it may indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. Keep in mind that sportsbooks and prediction markets each have their own strengths and weaknesses in assessing event probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in Iceland winning the second half, the price of those shares will increase, reflecting growing confidence in that result. Conversely, selling pressure will lower the price. The current implied probability of Iceland winning is 49.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the result will be determined by which team scores more goals in the second half of the Bulgaria vs. Iceland match. The official match result, as reported by a recognized sporting authority, will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected events during the first half of the match, such as a red card or a significant goal, could also cause a rapid reassessment of probabilities. Furthermore, large volume trades from influential traders could temporarily impact the price, though the market generally self-corrects over time.