TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 8:19 AM EST
Kalshi
The 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai golf tournament features multiple markets focused on identifying the leader after the third round. Each market is tied to a specific player, with outcomes determined by their performance relative to others on that day.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player is the sole leader at the end of Round 3. If multiple players are tied for the lead, "Yes" positions receive a prorated payout of $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down), while "No" positions receive the remainder of the stake pool. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets, ensuring consistent resolution methodology regardless of the participant.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each player leading after Round 3. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that player leading. Conversely, selling a contract lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to reflect the latest information and collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player is officially recorded as the leader at the end of Round 3 of the Buick LPGA Shanghai tournament. The official leaderboard published by the LPGA Tour will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official results and will not be subject to any disputes or interpretations beyond the official leaderboard data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player health, such as an injury withdrawal, would likely cause a shift in odds. Changes in weather conditions during Round 3 could also influence the leaderboard and, therefore, the market. Strong performance by a player during the early stages of Round 3, or a significant struggle by a current favorite, would also be major catalysts. Finally, any unexpected developments or controversies surrounding a player could also move this market as traders adjust their assessments of each player’s chances.