TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential point differential in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that Toledo or Buffalo must exceed to settle the bet.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Buffalo vs Toledo college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For Toledo win markets, resolution occurs if Toledo wins by more than the specified point margin; for Buffalo win markets, resolution occurs if Buffalo wins by more than the specified margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging with sportsbook odds as the event approaches. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and differing incentives between bettors on sportsbooks and traders on Kalshi. Sportsbooks may incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows for more direct price discovery. It's common to see this market initially diverge from sportsbook lines, then adjust as new information becomes available and more traders participate.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Buffalo vs Toledo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the game’s governing body. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their investment. The market’s outcome will be determined by the official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any significant news regarding injuries to key players on either the Buffalo or Toledo teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's conditions, could also shift the market. Additionally, public perception and analysis from sports commentators can influence trader sentiment and therefore the price of contracts in this market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also play a role.