TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Buffalo and Montreal. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, reflecting the competitiveness of the match. Outcomes are determined by the final score and specific conditions around game scheduling changes.
The event consists of four markets that resolve based on the goal differential in the Buffalo vs Montreal NHL game scheduled for October 13, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team to exceed—either 1.5 or 2.5 goals—for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If Buffalo or Montreal meets or exceeds their respective threshold in their victory, that market resolves accordingly. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, it remains active and resolves based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within that 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under scheduling disruptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with but sometimes diverging from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market’s prices are determined by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If there's a significant difference, it could indicate that prediction market traders have access to information or insights not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It’s a useful comparison for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Buffalo vs Montreal game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The more contracts bought for a specific spread, the higher its price becomes, and vice versa, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Buffalo vs Montreal game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. All contracts will be settled based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts available on Kalshi. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout of $1 per contract, minus any fees.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Buffalo or Montreal teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to affect the game's conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any public statements from coaches or players that suggest a change in strategy or team outlook could influence trader sentiment and move the spread. Unexpected developments leading up to game day can all contribute to price fluctuations.