TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the scoring difference between the Buffalo and Los Angeles teams in their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific range of points by which either team might win. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Buffalo and Los Angeles in their full game, including overtime, scheduled for October 12, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team's score exceeds the loser by a number of points that falls within the specified range for that market: exactly 0 points, 1-6 points, 7-14 points, or 15+ points. If Buffalo wins by any of the defined margins, the corresponding Buffalo markets resolve to 'Yes'; if Los Angeles wins by any of the defined margins, the corresponding Los Angeles markets resolve to 'Yes'. All markets are independent, and only the market whose exact differential range matches the actual result will resolve to 'Yes', with all others resolving to 'No'. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the mispricing. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines tend to converge as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different winning margins in the Buffalo vs Los Angeles game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific margin occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe a certain margin is likely, the price of contracts representing that margin will increase. Conversely, if traders believe a margin is less probable, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final winning margin of the Buffalo vs Los Angeles game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the winning margin will receive a payout based on the contract's value at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor news sources and official results following the game to understand how this market will be settled and ensure accurate verification of the final score.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Buffalo or Los Angeles teams would likely cause shifts in the price of contracts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's conditions, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also affect how traders assess the probability of different winning margins. Public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analysis, may also play a role in shaping the market's direction.