TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 1:01 AM EST
Kalshi
This event involves multiple markets centered around player performance in a specific football game, focusing on the achievement of scoring touchdowns. Each market is tied to individual players or team defensive units, with varying thresholds for the number of touchdowns required to trigger a resolution. The outcomes are determined by actual game statistics, subject to specific participation and protection rules.
All markets in this event are designated as protected, meaning they incorporate specific participant engagement criteria to ensure fair resolution. A contract resolves to the fair price pre-game if the relevant player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half, unless the required number of touchdowns is achieved. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an at-least payout criterion, and this event considers the full game including overtime. Notably, passing touchdowns do not count toward the totals for the passer, and team defense/special-teams selections are settled on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception applying to them.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may set lines to encourage balanced betting, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likely number of touchdowns scored. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, and the incentives of those placing bets. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to odds that diverge from, or converge with, those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different touchdown totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly updating its predictions based on the latest information and trader sentiment. The current price indicates the cost to take a position on a specific touchdown total.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Buffalo vs Los Angeles game will be used to determine the winning contracts. Resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. It’s important to monitor official sources for the confirmed game statistics as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries for either the Buffalo or Los Angeles teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions, could also impact the expected scoring output. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal conflicts could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information.