TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 12:04 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Buffalo and Los Angeles. Contracts pay out based on the number of rushing yards each player records during the game, with payments scaling linearly according to yardage achieved. The structure allows participants to speculate on individual player productivity in the contest.
All markets resolve based on a scalar payout structure where Yes contracts earn $0.0025 per rushing yard accumulated by the named player (Kyren Williams, Josh Allen, or James Cook III) in the specified game, capped at $1.00. No contracts receive $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring total payouts per contract equal $1.00 regardless of outcome. Payouts are proportional to yardage up to a 400-yard cap, with examples provided for 0, 80, and 200 yards illustrating how payments scale. The rules clarify these are independent markets for each player, each operating under identical payout mechanics but applied to different athletes' performances.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. While sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of prediction markets where prices adjust rapidly with new information. It’s common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds closer to the event date, but divergences can present potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard outcomes for the Buffalo and Los Angeles game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium, representing the aggregated forecast. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment surrounding player injuries, weather conditions, or other relevant factors.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Buffalo and Los Angeles game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual rushing yard outcome will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The final outcome will be clearly displayed on Kalshi following official confirmation.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either the Buffalo or Los Angeles teams would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions that favor a run-heavy offensive strategy, could also shift prices. Unexpected coaching decisions or adjustments to offensive play-calling could also influence market sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to substantial price movements in this market as traders react to new information.