TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Buffalo and Los Angeles. Each market focuses on a different player, allowing participants to speculate on individual performance metrics.
Each market operates as a scalar betting system where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the specified player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Receptions are capped at 20 for calculation purposes. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning that if a player records 8 receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.40 and No contracts pay $0.60. If a player records zero receptions, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All markets resolve based solely on the official game statistics, and Kalshi explicitly states it has no official affiliation with the NFL.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about player performance. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market believes there’s an edge, offering a different perspective than traditional betting outlets.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each relevant player will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and official data release.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers on either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact expectations. Additionally, late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching strategies could shift the market as traders adjust their assessments. Unexpected player performance in the days leading up to the game, or even during pre-game warmups, could also lead to fluctuations in the prices within this market.