TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by various Buffalo and Los Angeles players in an upcoming football game. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase with the number of receptions, following a specific schedule, while 'No' contracts offer the inverse payout structure.
Each market corresponds to a specific player and determines payouts based on the number of receptions that player achieves during the designated football game. For each player, 'Yes' contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula for 'Yes' contracts is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions. 'No' contracts pay $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the player achieves at least one reception, with the exact payout determined by the reception count and the formula above. The structure ensures that 'Yes' payouts are non-linear, rewarding higher reception counts more significantly, while 'No' payouts decrease correspondingly. All markets are scalar, focusing solely on the reception count for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market diverge from sportsbook odds, especially as new information becomes available. Polls and analysts' projections often align more closely with prediction market prices than with initial sportsbook lines, as both attempt to forecast based on underlying probabilities rather than balancing books.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic representation of collective expectations. The market depth and trading activity indicate the level of confidence in various potential outcomes for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official reception totals for the Buffalo versus Los Angeles game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception count, as reported by official NFL statistics, will determine the winning contracts in this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the accurate and timely reporting of game statistics to understand when the market will be settled and which contracts will pay out.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers or the opposing team's defensive strategies would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team tactics or player matchups, or even significant shifts in public sentiment reflected in polls, could all contribute to volatility in this market.