TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a rushing distance beyond a set threshold in an upcoming football game between Buffalo and Los Angeles. Each participant's performance is evaluated independently to determine if they meet their individual yardage requirements.
All markets resolve based on whether the named player records a longest rush exceeding the specified yardage threshold during the Buffalo vs Los Angeles Pro Football game scheduled for October 12, 2026. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual longest rush recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for Blake Corum, Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Josh Allen, and James Cook III.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a player is more likely to have the longest rush than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that player will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on this market, as information asymmetry exists between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each player having the longest rush. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring, allowing traders to express their views and profit if their predictions are accurate. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the game will be declared the winner. The official game statistics, as reported by the NFL, will serve as the source for determining the longest rush. Any ties will be resolved according to the official NFL tie-breaking procedures, and the resulting outcome will be applied to this market. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team strategies, or even weather conditions could all impact traders’ perceptions of which player is most likely to have the longest rush. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or reports about a player’s health status would likely cause significant shifts in prices. Furthermore, any public statements from coaches or players about their game plan could also influence the market, as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.