TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a longest reception exceeding set yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each player's performance is evaluated independently to determine if they meet or surpass their designated yardage mark during the match.
The event evaluates multiple player-specific markets to determine if any listed player records a longest reception exceeding their respective yardage thresholds in the Buffalo vs Los Angeles Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different player and a unique threshold. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' the specified player must record a longest reception greater than their threshold during the game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the longest reception they actually record. All markets operate independently, and the outcome for each depends solely on the performance of the designated player against their individual threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or as the event draws closer. Examining both can offer a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the likelihood of each player having the longest reception. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a probability. A higher price indicates a greater perceived chance of that player achieving the longest reception. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders place orders, reflecting the evolving consensus of participants. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. Resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring accuracy and transparency. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the player with the longest reception, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on its final price.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could shift expectations and impact contract prices. Unexpected developments during practice sessions, such as a player demonstrating improved receiving skills, might also lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations. Furthermore, public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could sway traders' opinions, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.