TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific quarterbacks exceed various passing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends entirely on the players' performance during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game unless the player meets the specified passing yard threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. All thresholds apply to full-game passing yards, including overtime, and injury status does not affect protection qualifications.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their analysis, but this market allows anyone to take a position, leading to prices that can diverge as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks, resulting in potentially different probabilities assigned to various outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yardage range occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their own analysis and expectations, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The market depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the potential passing yardage for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage statistics from the Buffalo versus Los Angeles game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual passing yards achieved during the game, determining which contracts settle at 100 and which settle at 0. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either team, changes in weather forecasts impacting passing conditions, or adjustments to defensive strategies could all significantly shift expectations. Unexpected reports about player availability, coaching decisions, or even pre-game analysis from prominent sports commentators could also drive trading activity and alter the market’s pricing. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential movements in this market.