TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen in a specific NFL game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of interceptions for each player, allowing participants to speculate on the defensive struggles each quarterback might face during the match.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing interceptions recorded by Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen in the Buffalo vs Los Angeles Rams game scheduled for October 12, 2026. For any market, if the named quarterback is active for the game but does not take a snap—for example, if he is listed as a starter but the play clock is never started—the market settles at its fair market price as determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap, regardless of whether that snap is later nullified by a penalty, the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. Each individual market has a specific threshold: a '1+' market resolves to Yes if the quarterback records one or more interceptions, a '2+' market resolves to Yes if two or more interceptions occur, and a '3+' market resolves to Yes only if the quarterback throws three or more interceptions. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others, and each is evaluated solely on the performance of its designated quarterback against the stated threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent the true probability of an event occurring, without a built-in profit margin for the venue. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market evolves as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, potentially leading to different probabilities than those offered by traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing interceptions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of that contract increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s aggregate prediction, and traders can use this information to inform their own trading strategies. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Buffalo versus Los Angeles game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game data released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game statistics to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ recent performance, injury reports affecting their ability to throw accurately, or changes in weather conditions that might favor a run-heavy offense could all impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies employed by either team could also shift the market. Furthermore, general sentiment and analysis from sports analysts regarding the likelihood of interceptions in this specific matchup could drive volume and price changes in this market.