TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how often the quarterbacks for both teams attempt to pass the ball during a specific football game. Each market focuses on whether a particular player reaches a set number of pass attempts, reflecting the offensive strategies and game dynamics between the two teams.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the specified quarterback in the Buffalo vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026. If the named quarterback is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold for passing attempts; if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen, ensuring consistent evaluation of passing attempt totals under varying game conditions.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and often diverge from initial sportsbook lines as new information becomes available. Sportsbooks set initial odds to balance their books, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can take positions in this market that push the price in a different direction. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities as the event approaches, especially when compared to early public polling data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing attempt totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that scenario. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, providing a forward-looking assessment of the potential passing attempts in the game.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing attempt totals are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the Buffalo Bills versus Los Angeles Chargers game. The market will determine which contract corresponds to the actual number of combined passing attempts made by both teams during the game, and those contract holders will receive a payout.