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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether Jalen Nailor will score 2+ touchdowns in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game. Currently, the probability of Nailor achieving this is 14.0%, while the second most likely outcome, Mike Washington Jr. scoring 2+ touchdowns, is at 10.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Skyler Bell scores at least 1+ touchdowns in the game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the originally scheduled game date of October 19, 2026, to allow for official scoring confirmation.
The event determines if either the Buffalo Bills or Las Vegas Raiders defensive/special teams units (D/ST) score at least one touchdown in their Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each team’s market, if the D/ST unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the unit takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the outcome is based strictly on whether they score a touchdown. Importantly, touchdowns scored during fake punts or on offensive plays attempting field goals do not count toward this market, as only genuine special teams touchdowns are considered. The markets operate independently, meaning each team’s D/ST performance is evaluated separately.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often diverging from initial sportsbook lines as new information becomes available. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their analysis, but may be influenced by factors like public betting bias. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines closer to game time, the prediction market continues to evolve with each trade, offering a dynamic comparison to traditional betting outlets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the total number of touchdowns scored. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new data and provides a real-time assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding key player injuries for either the Buffalo or Las Vegas teams would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable or unfavorable for passing, could also impact the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move prices. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal conflicts could influence traders’ assessments of the likely outcome.