TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on whether a specific player will achieve various rushing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market has a different yardage requirement that the player must meet or exceed for the outcome to be considered a success.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player meets the specified rushing yard threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game rushing yards including overtime.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. While sportsbooks may initially react to news, this market can incorporate information more quickly as traders adjust their positions. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer a contract's price is to 100, the more likely the market believes that rushing yard total will be achieved. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing opinions.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals from the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard total, as reported by the official league statistics, will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual total rushing yards achieved in the game, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on its price at resolution.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either the Buffalo or Las Vegas teams would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if heavy rain or snow is predicted, could also shift expectations about rushing yard totals. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could also influence trading activity. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could lead to changes in volume and price.