TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of specific Buffalo and Las Vegas players in an upcoming football game, focusing on how many rushing yards each player accumulates. Participants bet on whether the players will reach certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about individual player contributions in the contest.
All markets resolve based on the total rushing yards recorded by designated players — Ashton Jeanty, Josh Allen, and James Cook III — during the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each Yes contract pays $0.0025 per rushing yard achieved by its respective player, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. The No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring a total payout of $1.00 per contract regardless of outcome. Payouts are scalar and proportional to yardage, meaning they scale linearly with performance: for example, 80 yards yields a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, while zero yards results in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All markets operate independently but follow this identical payout structure, with each player’s performance evaluated separately to determine resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the likely outcome. This often leads to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when incorporating information not fully reflected in sportsbook lines. However, sportsbook odds are readily available for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for arbitrage or informed trading in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates all available information, creating a real-time forecast of the total rushing yards in the game. The current price represents the cost to take one side of the bet.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Buffalo versus Las Vegas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, and the contracts will pay out based on which yardage range was achieved during the game. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any associated payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the event.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would updates on the weather forecast for the game, which could affect the teams’ offensive strategies. Changes in coaching decisions or reported shifts in game plans could also influence trading activity. Finally, even late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive adjustments could cause the market to react and prices to shift as traders adjust their expectations before the market resolves.