TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Buffalo and Las Vegas. Participants can speculate on whether each player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.05 for every reception recorded by the designated player during the specified game, up to a maximum payout of $1.00. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at 20 receptions, ensuring that Yes payouts do not exceed $1.00. For example, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60. If no receptions are recorded, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All payouts scale proportionally based on the holder's position size, allowing for nuanced betting on player performance in the game.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price in this market will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Buyers are expressing a belief that the outcome is *more* likely, driving the price up, while sellers believe it's *less* likely, driving the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Specifically, the market will determine which player exceeds or falls short of the reception totals represented by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The outcome will be based on official data sources and will not rely on subjective interpretation.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected performance in earlier games, or reports about a player's training regimen, could also move the market. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants can create significant price swings. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential market movements.