TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to speculate on the receiving performance of specific Buffalo Bills players in an upcoming game against Las Vegas. Payouts increase progressively with the number of receiving yards achieved by each named player, offering a tiered reward structure based on yardage milestones.
Each market determines payouts based on the receiving yards accumulated by a specified Buffalo Bills player in the game against Las Vegas. Yes contracts pay an amount determined by a cubic scaling formula applied to the player's receiving yards, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout schedule increases incrementally for every 10-yard interval up to the maximum threshold. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. If a player records negative receiving yards, Yes contracts pay $0.00. All markets resolve to Yes following the calculation, regardless of the outcome, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust prices based on their own analysis and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player performance, injury reports, or even weather conditions. It's common to see this market incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. Comparing these odds can be a useful exercise for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient estimate of the total receiving yards for the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals from the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the league, and any adjustments made due to penalties or other game-related factors. The market will settle to 100, representing the total receiving yards achieved by both teams combined during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct yardage range will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries, particularly to wide receivers or quarterbacks on either team, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact passing game strategies and, consequently, receiving yardage totals. Late-breaking news about defensive matchups or coaching adjustments could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about player availability or performance expectations are all potential catalysts for movement in this market.