TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether specific players from either team achieve a rushing play longer than a set threshold during the game. Each market focuses on a different player and their performance in terms of yardage gained on a single rush. The outcomes depend on whether the player's longest run exceeds the specified yardage mark.
These markets resolve based on whether designated players record a longest rush exceeding specified yardage thresholds in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a rush longer than the threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the longest rush actually recorded during the game. These rules apply independently to each player’s market, with each evaluating the specific yardage criteria for the named participant.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of each player achieving the longest rush. Discrepancies can arise from differing analyses, public biases, or even late-breaking news impacting player availability. It’s common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player’s probability of having the longest rush. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that player winning. Conversely, selling a contract lowers its price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi, creating a dynamic and evolving probability distribution for the outcome of the NFL longest rush market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt during the Buffalo versus Las Vegas game will be declared the winner. The official game statistics, as recorded by the NFL, will serve as the basis for determining the longest rush and settling this market. Any ties will be resolved according to the platform's standard tie-breaking procedures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key running backs on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected announcements about playing time or strategic changes by either coaching staff could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding player matchups or defensive strategies could lead to adjustments in the probabilities assigned to each player in this market.