TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:43 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets evaluate whether Josh Allen will achieve specific passing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game between Buffalo and Las Vegas. Each threshold represents a progressively higher benchmark for Allen's performance in the contest.
These markets resolve based on Josh Allen’s passing yards in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. For the first set, if Allen participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to kickoff unless he meets the threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If he participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game passing yards including overtime.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the most likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news breaks or as more information becomes available. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into where the market might be mispricing the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements and reflecting collective intelligence about the game's potential passing yardage totals.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either team would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect passing strategies. Updates on receiver availability, defensive matchups, or even coaching decisions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about team practice dynamics or player health could also cause notable price movements in this market.