TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 6:30 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on evaluating Josh Allen's passing performance in a specific NFL game between Buffalo and Las Vegas. They measure how many touchdowns he throws during the match, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The resolution depends entirely on the actual game statistics.
The official rules for these markets collectively govern the resolution based on the number of passing touchdowns Josh Allen records in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if Allen achieves a specified minimum number of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+). A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if Josh Allen is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Allen takes at least one snap—regardless of whether any play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing touchdowns he records during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases where a player is present but does not participate, while maintaining standard gameplay-based resolution for all participating snaps.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions in real-time. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of those trading in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payouts shortly after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Unexpected news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also lead to shifts in trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.