TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. It focuses on whether predetermined thresholds of passing attempts are met by the named players during the match. Outcomes are determined purely by the in-game performance statistics of these athletes.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the specified quarterback—either Kirk Cousins or Josh Allen—during the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the designated player must meet or exceed the stated passing attempt threshold (34+, 39+, or 44+ for Cousins; 26+, 31+, or 36+ for Allen). If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all sub-markets for each quarterback and threshold, ensuring consistent evaluation of outcomes based on in-game performance data.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides of a bet. This market, however, allows individuals to trade based on their own insights and information, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the actual outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk assessments, and the dynamic nature of public opinion as new information becomes available before the game.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempt totals for both the Buffalo and Las Vegas teams will be sourced from official league data. The market will settle to reflect the actual number of passing attempts made by each team during the game, as recorded by the official statistics. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either the Buffalo or Las Vegas teams would be a major catalyst, as it directly impacts their projected passing volume. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also shift the market, potentially favoring a run-heavy offensive strategy. Game script developments during the game itself – such as a large early lead or a close, back-and-forth contest – will also drive price movements. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding key offensive players could also affect trading activity.