TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:06 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate the performance of individual players in an upcoming NFL game between Buffalo and Las Vegas by tracking their fantasy football points scored using standard Points Per Reception (PPR) scoring. Payouts are directly tied to the number of points each player accumulates during the game, with specific calculations applied to determine winnings for both 'Yes' and 'No' positions.
Each market determines payouts based on the PPR fantasy points scored by a specified player during the Buffalo vs Las Vegas Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. For each market, the Yes contract pays $0.01 per fantasy point scored by the player, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point total for the player that week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, and all markets are independent scalar calculations using the same structure and constraints.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view, leading to a potentially more accurate forecast. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the mispricing between the two types of markets. However, it's important to remember that both types of odds represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price points, indicates the strength of conviction behind each outcome. You can view the order book to see the current bids and asks, giving you insight into the forces driving price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about any potential factors that could influence the final result. The platform will clearly indicate when the market has officially closed and the outcome has been verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or unexpected weather conditions could influence trader sentiment. Major upsets in other games involving these teams could also shift expectations. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or media coverage, can sometimes impact trading activity. Furthermore, large trades executed on Kalshi by sophisticated traders could cause noticeable price swings. Keeping abreast of these developments will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market and making informed trading decisions.