TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on how decisively either Buffalo or Las Vegas wins the final quarter of their football game. Each outcome depends solely on the point differential during the last quarter, ignoring any points scored before or after regulation time.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential Buffalo and Las Vegas achieve during the 4th quarter of their scheduled game on Oct 18, 2026, with overtime points excluded. Each market has a specific threshold: Buffalo must win by more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, while Las Vegas must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for respective resolutions to 'Yes.' If neither team meets their market's threshold, all resolve to 'No.' Thresholds represent varying degrees of dominance within the quarter, allowing traders to assess the likelihood of different margins of victory.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the probability of different outcomes in the Buffalo versus Las Vegas game, and comparing them can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Buffalo versus Las Vegas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL. The final spread will be calculated by subtracting the final score of the Las Vegas team from the final score of the Buffalo team, and the market will settle based on whether that difference exceeds the contract's specified spread.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Buffalo or Las Vegas teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first three quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing or a key turnover, could lead traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions, causing the price to move. Public sentiment and late-breaking analysis could also play a role.