TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 6:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Buffalo or Las Vegas specifically within the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the scoring differential between Buffalo and Las Vegas during the second quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market specifies a different point threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team for a 'Yes' resolution. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these outcomes, regardless of the overall game result. Markets are structured symmetrically for both teams, with thresholds ranging from narrow margins (e.g., over 1.5 points) to substantial leads (e.g., over 10.5 points). The governing body's official scoring and game records determine resolution, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of associated intellectual property.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome and can be influenced by various factors, including news and public perception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different spreads. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process leads to a market-determined price that represents the collective forecast for the Buffalo vs Las Vegas second-quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the second quarter spread of the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment.
Several signals could influence the Buffalo vs Las Vegas spread market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy or coaching decisions could also impact the perceived probability of different spreads. Unexpected weather conditions on game day might also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from market participants, can quickly shift the price and reflect changing expectations about the game's outcome.