TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 6:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for Buffalo or Las Vegas in the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets determine whether Buffalo or Las Vegas wins the first half of their Pro Football game by a specified margin. Each rule defines a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. For Buffalo-related markets, the condition is met if Buffalo wins by more than the stated points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5). For Las Vegas-related markets, the condition is met if Las Vegas wins by more than the stated points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5). All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first half of play. No market resolves unless the specified point differential is strictly exceeded; ties or exact margins do not satisfy any condition. The game in question is scheduled for October 18, 2026, and all outcomes are evaluated solely based on first-half performance.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Buffalo vs Las Vegas spread will be above or below a certain value. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability of the spread settling in a particular range, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood of that outcome. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official spread for the first half of the Buffalo vs Las Vegas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing body of the sport. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their investment. The exact payout amount will depend on the final price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could influence the Buffalo vs Las Vegas spread market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market.