TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses how many points will be scored in the final quarter of a football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams. Bettors predict whether the combined score will exceed certain thresholds, focusing solely on performance in the last quarter of regulation time.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams combined during the 4th quarter of the Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams game scheduled for October 12, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds the stated threshold (3.5, 6.5, 7.5, 10.5, 13.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 21.5, or 24.5 points), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored during regulation play in the 4th quarter count toward these outcomes. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and none are dependent on the results of others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook odds are inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a broader range of factors considered by prediction market participants. It's common to see this market offer odds that diverge from traditional sportsbooks, potentially providing an edge for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain result, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of the 4th quarter total exceeding or falling below a certain point.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score of the 4th quarter of the Bills-Rams game will be used to determine whether the market settles above or below the threshold defined by the contract prices. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verification. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for their contracts following the game's conclusion and official data release.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bills or the Rams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could signal a shift in sentiment and move the market accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving dynamics of this market.